Innovation drives economic growth.

This logic has risen to dominate the discourse in development circles, with government leaders, policy influencers, and development-minded business leaders fully embracing innovation as a panacea for unemployment and economic underperformance. Looking back on 2014, it is not difficult to see this globalization of the innovation mindset at work. India’s Narendra Modi recently called for a revival in Indian manufacturing and greater innovation to stimulate growth. Nigerian businessman Tony Elumelu recently launched a $100M Pan-African entrepreneurship grant program to unlock Africa’s economic potential. Start-up accelerators are almost as likely to be found in emerging nations as in Silicon Valley. Meanwhile, NGOs are increasingly emphasizing the role of innovation in their work.

But does greater innovation equal sustained macroeconomic growth and prosperity, all the time or even most of the time?

This question requires urgent clarification and may well be the difference between the developing nations that replicate the blistering success of China and the East Asian tigers, and those that crumble under the weight of their demographic booms.